By Lateef degbite
Between 1987 and now, Vladimir Putin, described as a ‘’Spymaster’’ in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, USSR, and now President of Russia have never been happy. This is because of the dissolution of Russia Federation into smaller countries and the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
Ronald Regan, a former President of the North American country of the United States, was said to have initiated the process for the collapse of USSR and dissolution of Russian Federation, which was said to have been completed by President George Walker Bush in 1992.
As a prelude to the dissolution of the Russia Federation, Regan and Mikhail Gorbachev, a former Soviet Premier, had signed a Landmark Treaty that called for ‘’the destruction of more than 2,600 Soviet and US, Nuclear Weapons in 187’’. The former US President had described the Treaty as not just an ‘’arms control’’ but an arms reduction agreement’’ that would actually reduce the number of Nuclear weapons in the world.
Regan may have cashed in on the political naivety of Gobachev in International politics to force him ‘’to tear down the Berlin Wall’’ as a way of encouraging the Russian government to work on bringing’’ the East and West Berlin together’’.
He had made Gorbachev to understand that ‘’prosperity can come about only when the farmer and businessman enjoy economic freedom’’, stressing that economic miracle like,’’ the Wirtscgaftswunder that took place in Western Germany was because the Leaders, reduced tariffs, expanded free trade and lowered taxes, noting that this could be recreated in Eastern Germany ‘’ if such reforms could be implemented’’.
The US President who has a grand plan to ensure total collapse of the USSR and the dissolution of Russia Federation had said that ‘‘where for four decades there was rubble, today in West Germany, there was the greatest industrial output of any city in the country, busy office blocks, fine homes, and apartments, proud avenues, and the spreading lawns of parkland’’ which is lacking in East German. The message was very clear: Gobachev,’’Go and initiate bold economic and political reforms in Russia’’.
He had alluded to what Nikita Krushchev, a former Premier of the Soviet Union had said in the’50s, where he had predicted that ‘’ Russia will bury the US. He opined that ‘’today the reverse is the case’’. Hear him: We see a free world that has achieved a level of prosperity and well-being unprecedented in human history compared to the Communist world where ‘’we see failure, technological backwardness, declining standard of health, even want of the most basic items including food’’. Freedom leads to prosperity’’, he had said.
Unknown to him, the former US President had a hidden agenda: Dissolution of Russia Federation into smaller countries to prepare the ground for NATO to expand into Eastern Europe. George Bush , who had succeeded Regan in 1989, may not have automatically followed the policy of his Predecessor in office, in dealing with the naïve Gobachev and the Soviet Union, as he was said to have ordered a ‘’policy re-evaluation in order to establish his own plan and methods of dealing with the Soviet Union arms control’’.
Indeed, Gorbachev’s decision to loosen the Soviet grip on the countries of Eastern Europe was said to have created an independent , and democratic momentum that led to ‘’the collapse of the sBerlin Wall in November 1989’’. Bush had encouraged the Gorbachev reform efforts for’’ finalizing START negotiations, completing the Conventional Force in Europe Treaty and moving the former Russian Federation towards a Democratic system and market –oriented economy’’.
With the dissolution of Russia completed, Bush was said to have moved a step to recognise all the Independent countries to spite Goorbachev who felt a sense of betrayal. They are Uzbeekistan, Armenia, Moldova, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Tajkistan, Georgia, , Kazakhistan and Ukraine including Russia and the Baltic states of, Lactivia, Estonia, and Lithunia.
R Gorbachev may have gotten his first major shocker over his romance with the West when in 2002, seven former allies of the former USSR: Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lactivia, Slovania, and Lithunia joined NATO, against the earlier promise made by Bush, the US President that NATO, will not expand its tentacles to Eastern Europe. The security alliance was said to have targeted Ukraine in 2008 , that the US government boasted that Ukraine is the next country from Eastern Europe that would NATO. The US government may have slowed down its efforts in pressurising Ukraine, Russia closest neigbouring country to join the Security alliance because of the strong opposition of Putin who had emerged as Russia President in 2012. Bush could not penetrate him to complete his agenda of taking Ukraine to join NATO to forestall the country from taking over control of the four Nuclear plants in the country which would give it an edge over Russia.
Putin had expressed his anger over ‘’the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the dissolution of Russia Federation as ‘’the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century’’ and had vowed to ‘’to reverse this sad chapter of history’’. The invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, February 24. 2022, was a message to the International community that he process for reversing the dissolution of Russia Federation has begun.
In invading Ukraine, Putin had said that the Russian government had ‘’viewed through its lens and cannot face the risk of US assault from the Ukrainian territory’’.‘’The puppet regime’’, referring to Volodymyr Zelensky government ‘’will have to be removed’’. This may have informed why he rolled out the tanks to Ukraine to remove ‘’the Zelenskyy regime’’ and return to the status quo where the 15 republics carved out of Russia will still be part of Federation.
Zelensky may have read the handwriting on the wall of what is going to happening next after the Ukraine war might have ended as he has sent a message to the Leaders of the other former Russia Federation Republics still romancing with the west not to relax in their efforts to strengthen the security architecture of their countries as ‘’Putin will come after them to force them back to Russia’’.
The Ukrainian President had said that ‘’small towns no longer existed in the western Ukraine region since the Russian invasion’’, nothing that over’’ 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighbouring countries’’. He had told those that cares to listen that the Russian President has not shown any readiness ‘’to make peace’’, but he is ‘’ready’’ to hold direct talks with him to end the war.
The US may have entered into the Ukraine war to save its face. Joe Biden, the US, president was said to have approved $200 million in arms and equipment supply for the country.The latest arms package include Javelin antitank missiles and stinger ant-aircraft missiles. The Package, is coming on the heels of the earlier $350 million arms package extended to the country Last February.
Altogether , the Bidden Administration, was said to have spent $1.2 billion in weapons supply for Ukraine in the past one year, meaning that the US, had known that Russia will roll out the tanks and widen its air raids because of its established military presence in Ukraine.
Aware that the $1.2 billion spent on military aid in the last one year in Ukraine to strengthen its military against any eventual attack by Russia was nothing compared to the $2.3 trillion spent on the Afghanistan war in the 2000 may have encouraged Biden to approach the Senate to approve an additional $6.5 billion military assistance for Ukraine in the fight against Russia, which was said to have been approved on Thursday, March 10, 2022 .
Many believe that the Ukrainian war appears to be getting out of control as the EU Leaders have agreed ‘’to finance ‘’the purchase and transport of arms worth 450 million euros or $502 million to Ukraine. Germany, alone, which Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was making strenuous efforts to end the war, was said to have agreed to supply 1,000 anti-tank missiles and 500 stinger missiles, in a U-turn from its policy of banning weapon exports to Ukraine. The Norwegian government had promised last February , that it will donate between 1,000 and 2000 M72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine to support the east European country in the fight against Russia. The two countries, Germany and Norway may have kept to their promise.
Note that the US weapon suppliess for Ukraine, were sent to the country from its existing stockpiles in Europe but flown to the neighbouring countries of Poland and Romania for easy transfer to the country. In less than a week of the war, for instance, the US government was said to have shipped into western Ukraine more than 17,000 anti-tanks weapons, including Javilins.
This may have informed why Russia Forces have Launched multiple air raids on a large Ukrainian military base, outside the western city of Kyiv, the Capital of Ukraine, near the Polish border, in what military analysts had described as ‘’the most fierce attack’’ since Russian invaded Ukraine late February, 2022.
The 360 KM or 40 square miles , Yaroriv military facility , which according to informed sources was less than 25 KM or 15 miles, away from the Polish border, was said to be one of Ukraine’s biggest and largest in the western part of the country, where Ukrainian Forces hold most of their drills with the NATO countries. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Defense minister had confirmed that ‘’ foreign military instructors worked at the facility’’.
Until the recent attack of the Ukrainian military base near the Polish border, Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian Deputy Foreign minister, who may have spoken the mind of Putin ,on Saturday, March 12, 2022, had said that Russian troops would ‘’target supplies of Western weapons in Ukraine.
The minister had said that the Russian government had repeatedly warned the US, that ‘’the orchestrated dumping of weapons from a number of its allies in Europe was not just a ‘’dangerous move but a move that will turn these convoys into Legitimate targets’’.
Jake Sullivan, President Biden National Security Adviser, NSA, may have spoken the mind of the US President, when he said on Sunday, March 13, 2022, that ‘’Russia will face a response from NATO, should any of its attacks and air raids on Ukraine military installations cross –borders hit members of the security alliance.
The NSA may have alluded to Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lactivia, Slovania, Slovakia and Lithunia. Recall that the start of the Ukraine war, President Biden had said that ‘’the US, will work with its allies to defend every inch of NATO territory’’. The NSA, may have sent a message to Putin that ‘’a military attack on NATO territory would cause the invocation of Artcle 5, which stipulates the ‘’ Agreement for collective defense of a member country under threat of attack by another country’’.
There are fears making the rounds in NATO member countries that Russia might be forced to use ‘’Chemical and biological weapons in the Ukraine war if pushed to the wall’’. Jens Stoltenberg, the German born NATO, Secretary General, had said that there have been reports about ‘’the existence of Chemical and biological weapon Laboratories in Russia, urging the US and other NATO member countries , UK, Canada and the 27 EU, member countries to be on the red alert to forestall plans by Russia to use chemical and biological weapons in the Ukrainian war.
Given the biting effects of the US and allies economic sanctions on Russia economy may have encouraged the Asia country of China to prove it with a life line which Biden did not find funny. The US and its allies had deprived the Russian government access to $300 billion of its $640 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Anton Siluanov, Russia minister of Finance, had said that they could breathe a sigh of relief because Russia have part of its gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency Yuan. There are indications that the Western Leaders have mounted pressure on China in order ‘’to limit mutual trade with Russia as there is also pressure on the country ‘’to limit Russia access to its foreign reserves’’. The Russia Finance minister could beat his chest that their partnership with China had allowed them to maintaintain the Operation that they have achieved so far but will increase in an environment where Western markets are closing.
China’s Xi Jinping may have thrown his weight on Russia despite pressure from the US, to limit its trade with the East European country because of their Agreement just weeks before Ruussia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, that there will be ‘’no limits in the friendhip between the two countries’’.
China is Russia’s top export market after the EU. Russia exports to China were said to be worth $79.3 billion in 2021 , with oil and gas , accounting for 56% of that, according to China’s Customs agency.
China has every reason not to play along with the US and its allies in supporting its sanctions against Russia because it invaded Iraq, Libya and several other countries across Europe, Asia , North and South America under false pretenses. Jinping had said that world Leaders should be more concerned to ensure that ‘’the Ukraine tense situation did not get out of control’’. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish President and Greek Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, had said that both countries have a great role to play in changing the security situation in Europe after Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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